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FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (with 8 Weeks Until the 85th Oscars)
By Scott Feinberg ,  The Hollywood Reporter

The Hollywood Reporter -- Every week through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter 's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as a key for the various colors and acronyms that appear throughout them, scroll to the bottom of this post.)

PHOTOS: Quentin Tarantino's 'Django Unchained' NYC Premiere

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK'S FORECAST:

Warner Bros.' The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, which came out three weeks ago, topped the box office with a take of $32.9 million during the last weekend of 2012. The year's two big Christmas Day releases, The Weinstein Co.'s Django Unchained and Universal's Les Miserables, were hot on its heels, grossing $30.7 million and $28 million, respectively. (Les Mis had topped Django on Dec. 25, scoring the biggest opening for a musical in history with an $18.2 million day, but the R-rated dramedy has since pulled ahead of it.) Sony's Skyfall, meanwhile, passed the $1 billion mark in global ticket sales, making it not only the highest-grossing James Bond film ever but also the highest-grossing Sony release, not adjusting for inflation.Best picture Oscar hopeful The Sessions, from Fox Searchlight, received a nice shout-out in The New York Times columnist Frank Bruni's Dec. 24 op-ed. He submits that the film, about a man in an iron lung who wants to lose his virginity, hammers home the point that "our bodies are not ourselves."Best director and best original screenplay Oscar hopeful Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained) will be honored with the Rome Film Festival's Lifetime Achievement Award on Jan. 4. Ennio Morricone, the legendary Italian composer who scored many of the spaghetti Westerns that inspired Django, will make the presentation. Tarantino's film, however, continues to cause debate stateside over its depiction of gun violence and 110 uses of the N-word. Two black directors took different sides in the debate: Spike Lee, a longtime critic of Tarantino, tweeted that the concept of the film is "disrespectful" and that he will not see it; Antoine Fuqua said he also has yet to see the film but is confident that Tarantino doesn't have "a racist bone in his body" and that his friend Jamie Foxx would never have agreed to star in a movie that was racist.Best director and best actor Oscar hopeful Ben Affleck (Argo), the founder of the Eastern Congo Initiative (about which he recently testified before the U.S. Congress) was announced as this year's recipient of The Cinema for Peace Foundation's Humanitarian Award. The award honors an individual and his or her organization "who has demonstrated the foresight, courage and leadership required to take a stand against extreme injustice, intolerance and inequalities."Best supporting actor Oscar hopeful Ewan McGregor (The Impossible) is   one of the boldfaced names on Queen Elizabeth II's New Year Honors list this year. The 41-year-old will be named an Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE).Best original screenplay Oscar hopeful Judd Apatow (This Is 40) was announced as the recipient of the Critics' Choice Movie Awards' inaugural Louis XIII Genius Award. The award was created to honor “an unprecedented demonstration of excellence in the cinematic arts.”THR's Borys Kit unveiled his list of the top 10 "geek movies" of 2012, and the film that captured the top spot is not Cloud Atlas, Prometheus or The Avengers but rather Warner Bros' best picture Oscar hopeful Argo! Kit argues that it deserves to be considered a geek movie because "there’s the backdrop of the making of a sci-fi epic, Planet of the Apes' Oscar-winning makeup artist John Chambers (played by John Goodman) is a major supporting character, and it's filled with Star Wars references and even ends with a shot of the classic action figures."

PHOTOS: Todd McCarthy's 10 Best Movies of 2012

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST:

BEST PICTURE

Front-runners Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, PG-13, trailer ) AFI, IPA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer )AFI, IPA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, PG-13, trailer )AFI, IPA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, R, trailer )AFI, IPA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, FI Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, R, trailer ) NBR, NYFCC,BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, AFI, IPA, HFPA, BFCA Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, PG, trailer ) AFI, IPA, HFPA, BFCA Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer )AFI, HFPA, BFCA Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, PG-13, trailer ) LAFCA The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer ) BFCA Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer ) AFI, IPA, BFCA, FI Major Threats The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer ) Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer ) AFI, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, FI The Intouchables (The Weinstein Co., 5/25, R, trailer ) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer )SAG, HFPA Possibilities Skyfall (Sony, 11/9, PG-13, trailer )IPA Flight (Paramount, 11/2, R, trailer ) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, PG-13, trailer ) The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer ) AFI

BEST DIRECTOR Front-runners Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)IPA, HFPA, BFCA Ben Affleck (Argo)IPA, HFPA, BFCA Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA Ang Lee (Life of Pi)HFPA, BFCA David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)IPA, BFCA, FI Major Threats Michael Haneke (Amour) Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)HFPA Tom Hooper (Les Misérables) BFCA Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)LAFCA Robert Zemeckis (Flight) Sam Mendes (Skyfall) Possibilities Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises) BenhZeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) FI Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom) FI Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey) Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski (Cloud Atlas) Dustin Hoffman (Quartet)

BEST ACTOR Front-runners Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) NBR, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA John Hawkes (The Sessions)HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI Denzel Washington (Flight)IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Major Threats Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour) Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA Richard Gere (Arbitrage)HFPA Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained) Jack Black (Bernie) HFPA, FI Possibilities Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock) Ben Affleck (Argo) Omar Sy (The Intouchables) IPA Tom Holland (The Impossible) Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)HFPA

BEST ACTRESS Front-runners Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) NBR, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) HFPA, SAG, BFCA Naomi Watts (The Impossible)HFPA, SAG, BFCA Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)LAFCA, BSFC, NYFCO, IPA, BFCA Major Threats Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)HFPA, SAG Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) BFCA Maggie Smith (Quartet)HFPA Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea) NYFCC, HFPA Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)HFPA Possibilities Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)IPA Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)HFPA EmayatzyCorinealdi (Middle of Nowhere) FI Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed) FI Frances McDormand (Promised Land)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Front-runners Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) NYFCO, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)IPA, SAG, BFCA Alan Arkin (Argo)HFPA, SAG, BFCA Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) DCAC, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)HFPA Major Threats Javier Bardem (Skyfall)IPA, SAG, BFCA Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables) IPA Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained) NBR, HFPA John Goodman (Flight)IPA John Goodman (Argo) Possibilities Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike) NYFCC, BFCA, FI Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained) Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild)LAFCA Bryan Cranston (Argo) Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Front-runners Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) NYFCO, IPA, DCAC, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Sally Field (Lincoln) NYFCC, BSFC, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Helen Hunt (The Sessions)IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI Amy Adams (The Master)LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) Major Threats Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) SAG Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) HFPA, SAG Ann Dowd (Compliance) NBR, BFCA, FI Kelly Reilly (Flight) Possibilities Amanda Seyfried (Les Misérables) Samantha Barks (Les Misérables)IPA Judi Dench (Skyfall) IPA, BFCA Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Front-runners Lincoln (Tony Kushner) NYFCC, BSFC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA Argo (Chris Terrio) LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell) NBR, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, FI Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, BenhZeitlin) Life of Pi (David Magee) IPA , BFCA Major Threats Les Miserables (William Nicholson) The Sessions (Ben Lewin)IPA The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano) Quartet (Ronald Harwood) Bernie(Richard Linklater) Possibilities Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky) BFCA The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (PhilippaBoyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh) Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Front-runners Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal) NYFCO, IPA, HFPA, BFCA Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino) HFPA, BFCA The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson) IPA, BFCA Amour (Michael Haneke) BFCA Looper (Rian Johnson) NBR, DCAC, BFCA Major Threats Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson) IPA, BFCA, FI The Intouchables (Eric Toledano, Olivier Nakache)IPA Flight (John Gatins) IPA, BFCA Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki) Middle of Nowhere (Ava DuVernay) Possibilities Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh) FI End of Watch (David Ayer) Promised Land (Matt Damon, John Krasinski) The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez) Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Front-runners Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer ) IPA, HFPA, BFCA Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, PG, trailer ) NBR, IPA, HFPA, BFCA Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, PG, trailer ) NYFCC, LAFCA, BSFC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer ) DCAC, BFCA Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, PG, trailer ) IPA, HFPA, BFCA Major Threats The Painting (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer ) Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer ) IPA, BFCA Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer ) Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, PG, trailer )HFPA Possibilities From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer ) The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer ) The Rabbi's Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer )

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Front-runners Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer ) NBR, IPA, BFCA, CEH The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/13, PG-13, clip ) LAFCA , IPA How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer ) BSFC, FI Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer ) DCAC, BFCA Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer ) CEH Major Threats Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer ) Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer )IPA Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, 11/9, PG-13, trailer ) IPA The Imposter (Indomina, 7/13, R, trailer ) BFCA, CEH The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer ) FI Possibilities The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, TBA, trailer ) FI Five Broken Cameras (Kino Lorber, 5/30, NR, trailer ) CEH The House I Live In (Charlotte Street Films, 10/5, NR, trailer ) This Is Not a Film (Palisades Tartan, 2/29, NR, trailer ) Ethel (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE Front-runners Austria, Amour NBR, NYFCC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, FI France, The Intouchables IPA, HFPA, BFCA Denmark, A Royal Affair IPA, HFPA, BFCA Switzerland, Sister FI Chile, No Major Threats Norway, Kon-TikiIPA, HFPA Iceland, The Deep Canada, War Witch IPA, FI Romania, Beyond the HillsIPA

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Front-runners Life of Pi NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, BFCA The Master BSFC, IPA, BFCA Lincoln IPA, BFCA SkyfallLAFCA, IPA, BFCA Zero Dark Thirty NYFCC Major Threats Beasts of the Southern Wild IPA, FI Anna Karenina IPA Cloud Atlas Les Miserables BFCA Moonrise Kingdom FI Possibilities The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Django Unchained The Dark Knight Rises Argo Samsara

BEST COSTUME DESIGN Front-runners Anna Karenina IPA, BFCA Cloud Atlas IPA, BFCA Les Miserables IPA, BFCA Lincoln BFCA Snow White and the HuntsmanIPA Major Threats The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA A Royal Affair IPA Django Unchained Mirror Mirror The Dark Knight Rises Possibilities Argo The Master Moonrise Kingdom Life of Pi The Hunger Games The Avengers Prometheus

BEST FILM EDITING Front-runners Zero Dark Thirty LAFCA, IPA, BFCA Lincoln BFCA Argo BFCA Les Miserables IPA, BFCA The Master Major Threats Life of Pi BFCA Silver Linings PlaybookIPA Cloud Atlas IPA Beasts of the Southern Wild The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey The Impossible Possibilities Django Unchained The Dark Knight Rises The Bourne Legacy FlightIPA Moonrise Kingdom Samsara

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Front-runners The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA Lincoln BFCA Men in Black 3 Major Threats Les Miserables BFCA Hitchcock Looper Snow White and the Huntsman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Front-runners Lincoln (John Williams)IPA, HFPA, BFCA The Master (Johnny Greenwood) DCAC, IPA, BFCA Life of Pi (MychaelDanna) HFPA, BFCA Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, BenhZeitlin) LAFCA, DCAC, IPA Argo (AlexandreDesplat) IPA , HFPA, BFCA Major Threats Rise of the Guardians (AlexandreDesplat) Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli) IPA, HFPA The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore) Skyfall (Thomas Newman) IPA Zero Dark Thirty (AlexandreDesplat) Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer)HFPA Possibilities The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman) On the Road (Gustavo Santaolalla) The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard) The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Front-runners Anna KareninaIPA, BFCA Les Miserables IPA, BFCA LincolnIPA, BFCA The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA Zero Dark Thirty Major Threats Life of Pi BFCA Cloud Atlas DCAC The MasterLAFCA, IPA Argo Django Unchained The Dark Knight RisesIPA Possibilities Skyfall Beasts of the Southern Wild A Royal Affair IPA Moonrise Kingdom The Impossible Snow White and the Huntsman Prometheus Flight

BEST SOUND EDITING Front-runners Django Unchained The Dark Knight Rises Les MiserablesIPA Skyfall Lincoln Major Threats The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Zero Dark Thirty The Avengers The Impossible Life of Pi IPA The Master Argo Possibilities FlightIPA The Amazing Spider-Man Cloud Atlas The Impossible The Bourne Legacy The Hunger Games

BEST SOUND MIXING Front-runners Django Unchained The Dark Knight Rises Les MiserablesIPA Skyfall Lincoln Major Threats The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Zero Dark Thirty The Avengers The Impossible Life of Pi IPA The Master Argo Possibilities Flight The Amazing Spider-Man Cloud Atlas The Impossible The Bourne Legacy The Hunger Games

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Front-runners Life of Pi IPA, BFCA The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA Cloud Atlas IPA, BFCA The Dark Knight RisesIPA, BFCA SkyfallIPA Major Threats The Avengers BFCA The Amazing Spider-Man Snow White & the Huntsman Possibilities Prometheus IPA John Carter

BEST ANIMATED SHORT Front-runners Paperman (Disney) Combustible (Sunrise, Inc.) The Eagleman Stag (Royal College of Art) Tram (Sacrebleu Productions) Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare' (Gracie Films) Major Threats Adam and Dog (Lodge Films) Dripped (ChezEddy) The Fall of the House of Usher (Melusine Productions, R&R Communications Inc., Les Armateurs, The Big Farm) Fresh Guacamole (PES) Head Over Heels (National Film and Television School)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT Front-runners The Education of Mohammad Hussein (Loki Films) Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.) Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.) Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions) Paraiso (The Strangebird Co.) CEH Major Threats Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.) The Perfect Fit (SDI Productions Ltd.) Redemption (Downtown Docs)

* * *

KEY

Contenders' names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).

ACE = 63rd Eddie Awards (TBA)

AFI = 13th American Film Institute Awards (TBA)

ADG = 17th Art Directors Guild Awards (TBA)

ASC = 27th American Society of Cinematographers Awards (TBA)

BAFTA = 66th British Academy Film Awards (TBA)

BFCA = 18th Critics' Choice Awards (TBA)

BSFC = 33rd Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

CAS = 49th Cinema Audio Society Awards (TBA)

CDG = 15th Costume Design Guild Awards (TBA)

CEH = 6th Cinema Eye Honors (Jan. 9, 2013)

DCAC = 11th Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Awards (Dec. 10, 2012)

DGA = 65th Directors Guild of America Awards (TBA)

FI = 26th Independent Spirit Awards

HFPA = 70th Golden Globe Awards (TBA)

IAFA = 40th Annie Awards (TBA)

IPA = 17th Satellite Awards (Dec. 16, 2012)

LAFCA = 38th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (TBA)

MPSE = 60th Golden Reel Awards (TBA)

NBR = 84th National Board of Review Awards (TBA)

NSFC = 47th National Society of Film Critics Awards (TBA)

NYFCC = 78th New York Film Critics Circle Awards (TBA)

NYFCO = 12th New York Film Critics Online Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

PGA = 24th Producers Guild of America Awards (TBA)

SAG = 19th Screen Actors Guild Awards (TBA)

USC = 25th USC Scripter Awards (TBA)

VES = 11th Visual Effects Society Awards (TBA)

WGA = 65th Writers Guild of America Awards (TBA)

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE "FEINBERG FORECAST"

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry's most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world's best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).

Every week through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter 's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as a key for the various colors and acronyms that appear throughout them, scroll to the bottom of this post.)

Related article on THR.com:

A Few Minutes with Feinberg: Oscar Race Pits Crowd-Pleasers Against Downers (Video)

_ _ _ _

Find more online: THR.com

Copyright 2013 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
1Comment
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"Spike Lee, a longtime critic of Tarantino, tweeted that the concept of the film is "disrespectful" and that he will not see it;"

'prejudice' is to pre-judge... to make a judgement before experiencing the thing being judged... the above quote illustrates a perfect example of this...
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